Interpreting UN Urbanization Projections Using a Multi-state Model
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
World Urbanization Prospects: an alternative to the UN model of projection compatible with the mobility transition theory
This paper proposes to critically examine the United Nations projections on urbanisation. Both the estimates of current trends based on national data and the method of projection are evaluated. The theory of mobility transition is used as an alternative hypothesis. Projections are proposed using a polynomial model and compared to the UN projections, which are based on a linear model. The conclu...
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